![]() Couple this with saturated ground from well above normal rainfall over the past 90 days, and there will be serious flooding concerns. ![]() Along and to the east of the path, rain totals over a foot will be possible. Lastly, the system is carrying lots of tropical moisture, and it will likely slow down once it moves onshore. While it's too early to forecast exact numbers, there's no reason to think that surge above 10 feet won't be possible. This kind of storm - approaching from this angle, in this area - often creates overachieving storm surge. The angle of approach will also cause onshore winds from the southeast, piling up water onto the coast. The further east track near New Orleans is problematic for two reasons: the storm would make a more direct impact on the city, and it would arrive faster, allowing less time for preparation.Īs the images above show, gusts over 100 mph are likely near the landfall location. Both show strong storms, but the European is slower and further west. Pictured below are both the European model and American models. Each model has a slightly different answer when it comes to track, intensity and timing. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or above.Ī strengthening storm at landfall produces much more damage than a weakening storm, assuming an apples to apples comparison with similar wind speeds - and it's likely the storm will still be intensifying as it reaches the coast.īut the devil is in the details. With all this in mind, there's every reason to believe this will rapidly intensify and possibly become a major hurricane before landfall. A simulation of Ida moving over hot water. Lastly, as it nears the northern Gulf Coast, it will move over surface waters that are like bath water - 88 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit - some of the hottest surface waters available. Then, when the system reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, it will move over the infamous Loop Current: a curved current of some of the most energy-intensive water in the Gulf. ![]() In the Caribbean, Ida will move across extremely high ocean heat content, which is hot water that extends to a great depth. That point may seem a bit technical - but the rest is simple: The storm will also be traveling over a few areas of very hot water, which acts like high octane to fuel to supercharge storms. UOpt7rntQO- Jeff Berardelli August 26, 2021 Given this, and the very warm water all along it’s path, watch for rapid intensification. High above 99L - as it gets better formed over the Gulf - a protective cocoon (upper level ridge/ outflow) develops fending off wind shear and allowing it to breathe as its envelope expands.
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